Author: Dr. E

Bobcats Baseline Season 9 | Week 4 Recap

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Well, the word for the week is regression, as in regression to the mean.  The Bobcats started the week at a remarkable 7-5, having equalled last seasons’ win total in just 22 days.  But the impressive start was on a shaky foundation for a couple of important reasons.  One, the Cats had consistently been the beneficiaries on good fortune (OK, luck) in close games.  And two, the Bobcats had played the weakest schedule in the league.  Both luck in close games and strength of schedule tend to even out as the games pile up; hence the Cats were due to see their record come back down to earth.

So regress they did, dropping all three games this week against three likely playoff teams to fall to 7-8.  After getting blown out in Oklahoma City on Monday night, the Cats rebounded with better efforts in Atlanta and at home against the 76ers.  They hung around in the fourth quarter in both games, but didn’t get any of the breaks that had been going their way in the first few weeks of the season.

Three Thoughts on the Week

#1 – Finally Got To See Ben Gordon Do Ben Gordon Stuff

Gordon has had a choppy start to the season.  After a 34-point outburst against New Orleans early on, he missed a couple of games.  Then, since coming back he had a couple really quiet games.  But the past two have been pretty great.  Against Atlanta Wednesday night Gordon caught fire with 20 points on 5-7 3pt in the fourth quarter and almost singlehandedly kept the Bobcats within striking distance.  He had a similar, though less impressive, stint in the second quarter Friday night against the 76ers, with 11 points on 3-3 3pt.

Gordon’s on the downside of his career, so spurts like this will happen less frequently than we would like on this otherwise offensively limited Bobcats squad, but when he does catch fire it’s fun to watch.

#2 – Again, We Are Loving Jeff Taylor

Sorry for the repetition, as ASChin covered this in last week’s recap, but holy moly Jeff Taylor is looking like a steal.  His on-ball defense is as advertised, featuring an impressive combination of size, strength and quickness.  He’s fouling quite a bit, but I would expect that to improve over time as he goes around the league a few times, learning the tendencies of his opponents and the officials.

And his offense has been a nice bonus.  We knew he had a stellar senior year shooting the three at Vanderbilt, but there was concern that it may have been a little flukey, and whether it would translate out to the NBA line.  No worries, as Taylor’s hitting threes at a 40% clip, good for top 50 in the league overall and the second best among rookies (behind Kyle Singler).

Having someone on a second-round contract that can be a legitimate part of your rotation is a huge plus for any team, and something that hasn’t happened for the Bobcats until now (Bernard Robinson, Kyle Weaver anyone?).

TV play-by-play man Steve Martin referenced a moment from the little documentary on the Bobcats 2012 draft that has been showing that I’ve also recalled when watching Taylor.  In the Bobcats war room on draft day, they show Rich Cho taking a call from from another GM proposing a trade for the #31 pick.  You don’t quite get to hear all of the details, but what you do hear is Cho quickly reject the idea.  He’s polite enough, but there’s definitely a bit of “don’t be ridiculous” in his tone.  Cho knew he could get a player there, and he did.

# 3 – Signs Of Growth From Biz?

We all knew that Bismack Biyombo was a major project, particularly on the offensive end.  But there were times last season when he had such trouble doing basic things like catching and finishing in traffic that it became fair to wonder if he’d ever be able to play in crunch time in the league.  Fast forward to this year and I’m much less concerned.

Don’t get me wrong, Biyombo still has the occasional cringeworthy possession, but there have been more nice moments mixed in.  Plays that make you think “OK, he can do this.”  In the Philadelphia game in particular, the 76ers were religiously, almost embarrassingly, helping off of Biyombo.  (This can make you unplayable in crunch time.)  But credit to the Bobcats and Biyombo; they realized it and made the 76ers pay en route to a season high 14 points on 5-6 FG.

On one play a driving Gordon drew Biyombo’s man in addition to his own.  Biyombo slid to the perfect spot and Gordon whipped a pass to him.  This was the kind of pass that Biyombo routinely fumbles away, but this time he caught it and went straight up for the dunk.

In another moment from the same game, Evan Turner was mismatched on Biyombo in the post.  Yeah, Turner’s a wing, but he’s 6’7″ 220lb.  What’s important is that Biz confidently, purposefully, fluidly, and easily scored with a simple spin into a lefty lay-in.

The project appears to be coming along just fine.

–Dr. E 

 

 

Should the Bobcats trade the #2 pick?

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As we debate (agonize over?) the relative merits of Micheal Kidd-Gilchrist, Bradley Beal, Thomas Robinson, and Andre Drummond as potential selections for the Bobcats with the #2 pick, a tantalizing alternative has been presented.

Matt Moore of ProBasketballTalk makes a strong argument for trading the pick.  The argument boils down to this: the Bobcats desperately need both a franchise player and a more general infusion of talent; there is not a franchise player in this draft other than Anthony Davis; thus, the Bobcats should trade down in an attempt to add a couple of talented players — pieces, or assets if you will.

Moore also identifies some weaknesses in this strategy: one, while it seems unlikely at this time, it is possible that one of the above-mentioned candidates for the second pick could develop into a franchise player, which would make the Bobcats look even worse than they already do (if that’s possible); and two, that the Bobcats would be unlikely to receive full objective value back when trading away the pick.

For what it’s worth, I think the former weakness is the more important one.  Part of me thinks that the Bobcats should just decide which guy is going to be the best player, pick him at #2 and move forward.  Don’t over-complicate things.

But building an NBA team is complicated.  And the argument for trading the pick is admittedly compelling.  The next question is:  What could the Bobcats realistically get back for the second pick?

Speculation has mostly centered around the two teams with two first round picks: the Cavaliers (picks #4 and #24) and Trailblazers (picks #6 and #11).  Obviously, the first step is that one of these teams must fall in love with a player.

The Cavaliers are building around the core of Kyrie Irving, Tristan Thompson and Anderson Varejao.  Most observers are putting the Cavaliers onto the prominent wing prospects in this draft: Bradley Beal, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Harrison Barnes.  The Cavaliers supposedly liked Harrison Barnes in last year’s draft, so if Barnes’ underwhelming 2011-12 season didn’t scare them off, they would certainly be able to sit back and get him at #4.  But if they fall for Kidd-Gilchrist or Beal, they could package #4 and #24 to move up to #2 to ensure that they get their man.

Getting #4 and #24 would be attractive for the Bobcats in that they could very likely still get Thomas Robinson at #4 (who may be the best fit anyways) and pick up an extra player/asset at #24.

The negative part of this is that the Bobcats already have pick #31, the first pick of the second round.  #24 and #31 aren’t that much different — are the Bobcats really going to give significant playing/development time next year to the #24 and #31 picks?

What you’d be hoping for is that someone who’s projected in the teens slips down to #24 so you get some real value there — Quincy Miller, for example? Or maybe you use one of those picks on a project (Fab Melo, Marquis Teague, Evan Fournier?) and stash him in the D-League/Europe while using the other pick on a more polished player who could contribute from Day 1 (Jeff Taylor, Draymond Greene, Andrew Nicholson?).

Moving on to Portland (picks #6 and #11), the Trailblazers are building around LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum.  Their biggest needs are a starting point guard and a big to pair with Aldridge.  They could try to fill those needs with #6 and #11 (Chad Ford’s Mock 6.0 has them taking Andre Drummond and Damian Lillard, respectively, while Jonathan Givony/DraftExpress.com has them on Jared Sullinger and Kendall Marshall).

Or they could package the picks to move up to #2 to pick Thomas Robinson or Bradley Beal.  While Robinson is possibly too similar to Aldridge and thus not the greatest fit, he’s plug-and-play NBA ready.  Beal at 2-guard isn’t a primary need for the Blazers (they have Wesley Matthews there currently), but nonetheless keeps getting mentioned as as the guy that teams could really fall in love with.

Getting the sixth and eleventh picks would be supremely fun and terribly frightening for the Bobcats.  They might end up having to work out 50+ players when you add in the prospects for the #31 pick.

They could do the most Bobcatsian thing ever and pick Harrison Barnes at #6 and Tyler Zeller at #11 (harkening back to the all-Tarheels 2005 draft of Raymond Felton and Sean May).  People might riot, but those guys do fill needs — a wing and a big who meshes with Biyombo.

Or they could go with the two highest risk/reward prospects in the lottery: Andre Drummond at #6 and Perry Jones at #11 (again a big and a wing).  That would be fascinating.

Really, the possibilities are endless — the upshot is that you’re getting two lottery picks in a pretty deep draft.  And when you have as many holes as the Bobcats do, that’s probably the best move.

–Dr. E

POLL : What Should They Do with Pick #2?

  • Select Thomas Robinson (39%, 75 Votes)
  • Select Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (8%, 15 Votes)
  • Select Bradley Beal (15%, 28 Votes)
  • Select Andre Drummond (9%, 17 Votes)
  • Trade The Pick (29%, 55 Votes)

Total Voters: 190

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If Not Anthony Davis, Then Who?

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The Bobcats have been looking forward to the 2012 NBA Draft since, oh, about February 2011.  Fortunately, Operation Ping Pong Ball was a huge success and the Bobcats have the best chance at winning the #1 pick (25%) in Wednesday night’s lottery.  And even more fortunately, there is a clear #1 pick this year in Anthony Davis.

Drafting Davis would finally give the Bobcats a franchise player around which to build.  He would complement Bismack Biyombo well; neither one is a prototypical power forward or center, but their talent and athleticism would allow them to play together, freely switching defensively on the other teams’ bigs and concentrating on their strengths on the offensive end.

With Davis, the Bobcats would likely be able to lure a better coach this summer, and would improve appreciably on the court right away.  Then they would have another first rounder (or two) in 2013 and, most importantly, tons of cap room to lure a top  free agent in summer 2013.  Yes, if the Bobcats get Anthony Davis in 2012 I think they very well could be in the playoffs by the 2013-14 season.

Unfortunately, there is a 75% chance that the Bobcats will not win the lottery, and will instead be picking second, third, or fourth.  And most unfortunately, there are no surefire All-Stars after Davis.  The once-vaunted 2012 NBA Draft has turned into a bunch of question marks.

Let’s be clear: it will be an absolute tragedy if (when?) the Bobcats don’t win the lottery Wednesday night.  The players that will be available with picks 2-4 either have ceilings below “superstar” and/or have significant bust potential, making the Bobcats’ road back to relevance even longer.

But there’s no use crying over spilled milk.  And superstar or not, pick 2-4 should still significantly improve the team.  The consensus is that there is no sure #2 or #3 pick this year and that what we have instead is a second tier including Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Andre Drummond, Thomas Robinson and Bradley Beal.

When considering players in the same tier, team needs/strengths necessarily come into play.  While the Bobcats do have the least talented roster in the league, there are some relative strengths that would be foolish to ignore.  Probably the most striking is that the Bobcats have a glut of young and skilled, but either soft or undersized big men: Bismack Biyombo (undersized), Byron Mullens (soft), DJ White (soft), Tyrus Thomas (???).  So basically, power forward is not a position of need — unless that “power forward” is Anthony Davis, a hybrid power forward/center with singular talent a la Tim Duncan.

I also think that Gerald Henderson at starting 2-guard is a relative strength.  He has limitations, especially on the offensive end, and will never be an All-Star.  But he’s cost-effective (and likely to stay that way even after his rookie deal runs out), a good defender, and still has some potential to improve offensively.

With that in mind, here are some thoughts about what the Bobcats might do with picks #2-4.

#2: There is a 21.5% chance that the Bobcats will end up with the second pick.  It’s not a bad place to be, what with your choice of anyone not named Anthony Davis.  But it will come with a lot of pressure to pick the right guy, and not the bust.

I think most teams, the Bobcats included, would probably go with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist at #2.  He has prototypical small-forward size (6’7″, 225), plenty of athleticism and is a strong leader.  He’ll be a solid defender, and possibly an elite one, at his position.  Offensively, he’s an amazing slasher/finisher who needs to work on his range and shotmaking.  I really like the “Gerald Wallace, but with more offensive potential” comparison.  Finally, there is low bust potential with Kidd-Gilchrist, which is an important consideration when picking at #2.

For the Bobcats, Kidd-Gilchrist is a fine fit.  At his position, the Bobcats currently have Corey Maggette and Derrick Brown.  The end of Maggette’s time as an NBA starter is rapidly approaching, if it’s not already here.  He’ll be on an expiring contract in 2012-13, so would possibly be a nice trade chip for a contender at the deadline.  Brown is a nice backup.

So Kidd-Gilchrist could step in and own the starting SF spot for the Bobcats for the next decade.  His perimeter defense, toughness and leadership are sorely needed.  And the Bobcats would just pray that the offense comes along.

#3: The Bobcats have a 17.7% chance of getting the third pick.  Things get even trickier here, as you can’t be totally sure of who’s going to be available.  But assuming Kidd-Gilchrist goes second, then Andre Drummond, Thomas Robinson, and Bradley Beal would all be in play here.

I believe the Bobcats would opt for Andre Drummond. Drummond has ideal size (6’11”, 270) and athleticism for the center position and will be able to contribute defensively right away, but will need time and hard work to develop offensively.  A big bonus is that, like Davis, Drummond would mesh pretty well with Bismack Biyombo.  Whoever ends up being the nominal power forward or center doesn’t matter — they can play together and switch freely while defending the opponents bigs.

However, Drummond’s heart, motor, and even desire to excel at basketball have come into question after an underwhelming freshman year at UConn.  Consider what DeMarcus Cousins recently did with similar size and skills in his one-and-done year — he dominated.  But Drummond wasn’t even in the same ballpark in regards to efficiency or impact, and could disappear for whole games at a time.

If teams don’t like where his head is at during workouts/interviews, he could slide down some boards.  Combine the rawness on the offensive end with a motor that doesn’t run very hot and questionable work ethic, bake at 350° for 35 minutes and whala!  Bust.

But if he works out hard and says the right things during the draft preparation process (not that hard), he could be in the mix at #2 for some teams, the Bobcats included.  Even with red flags looming, most teams will be willing to take a chance on Drummond’s combination of size and skills with a high pick.

#4: If the Bobcats slide to the fourth pick (a 35.8% chance), it could get really dicey.  There’s a decent chance that Bradley Beal could go #2 or #3; thus, Drummond would still be available at #4.  That’s maybe a better place to pick Drummond anyways.  But for my purposes here, let’s assume that Kidd-Gilchrist and Drummond go 2-3.  It comes down to Bradley Beal or Thomas Robinson.

Beal is a slightly undersized, but physically solid, 2-guard in the mold of Eric Gordon.  Thomas Robinson is a relatively refined and well-rounded power forward who was productive as the centerpiece of a very good Kansas team last year.  Both are similarly low-risk.  You see the problem though, in that each would duplicate one of the relative strengths that the Bobcats currently have.

The argument for Beal is that he probably has a higher ceiling than Robinson, and would provide some sorely needed outside shooting.

The argument for Robinson is that, while the Bobcats have some power forwards, they don’t have a prototypical, tough, well-rounded one.  But I don’t think he fits well with Biyombo, in that Robinson doesn’t have the size to defend centers.  Any big that the Bobcats consider really needs to have that ability, in order to take some of the load off Biyombo.

It would be a dilemma, but with the Bobcats in search of star power and an identity, I think the pick would be Beal. But it also wouldn’t surprise me to see Perry Jones or Harrison Barnes get a long look if the Bobcats do slip to pick #4.

— Dr. E

The Bobcats and the Playoffs, Redux

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Like the Bobcats actual chances of making the playoffs, the argument about whether they should even be trying to make them isn’t dead yet either.

I appreciate Rick Bonnell’s steady-handed beat writing on the Bobcats for the Charlotte Observer.  But I couldn’t disagree more with his take on the issue, posted on his blog on Monday night after the win over the Bucks.  Rick’s words are in italics:

I got an email today from a reader saying I should stop writing about playoff implications and that the Bobcats would be much better off chasing lottery luck.

Wasn’t me, but it might as well have been.

I get that email a lot, and frankly it disregards how the weighted draft lottery works these days. If you’re one of the last teams to reach the playoffs, you have a miniscule chance of a top-3 pick (about a 1 percent chance for each of those picks).

Frankly, I’m not sure Rick is properly regarding the weighted lottery system.  (Also, I’ll assume he means “If you’re one of the last teams to MISS the playoffs”, otherwise he really doesn’t understand the system.)

Fortunately, I do understand the system and so can you.  It’s all right here on the Wikipedia page for the NBA Draft Lottery.  Scroll down about halfway to the “Process” section — the chart is very helpful in understanding.

Currently, the Bobcats have the 10th worst record in the league.  With Monday night’s win over the Bucks, it’s looking more and more like we’ll be locked in there to finish the season.  The “lottery” is indeed for the top 3 picks.  After that, the remaining non-playoff teams are simply slotted back in their order from worst to “best”.

With the 10th worst record, the Bobcats would have a 1.1% chance of winning the lottery for the #1 pick, a 1.3% chance at the #2 pick, and a 1.6% chance at the 3rd pick.  Another way of looking at it is that there is a total of a 4% chance of moving up into the top 3 picks.  Obviously, the chance that the Bobcats would end up with the 10th pick is overwhelming — 87%.

If the Bobcats could drop down lower than the Bucks (again, unlikely after Monday night) they’d be the 9th worst team.  That gets you a 1.7% chance at the #1 pick, 2.0% for #2, and 2.4% for #3.  Total 5.1% chance of moving up into the top 3 and 81% chance of sitting tight at the 9th spot.

If the Bobcats really got serious about tanking (it’s really not a dirty word — you can say it) they could pass up the Clippers for the 8th worst record in the league.  With that comes a 2.8% chance at the #1 pick, 3.3% for #2, and 3.9% for #3.  Total 10% chance at moving up; 72% chance at staying at #8.

Meanwhile the Bobcats would have a far greater chance (about nine percent) of actually moving DOWN in the draft order.

Yes, if the Bobcats finish in with the 10th worst record, they actually have a 8.9% chance of falling back one spot to the 11th pick (and a miniscule 0.2% chance of falling back two spots to the 12th pick) — that 9% chance represents the sum of the chances of teams 11-14 moving up into the top 3, thus bumping the Cats back.

You know what would DEFINITELY bump the Bobcats draft spot back — all the way to the 15th spot?  Making the playoffs.

And don’t even try to argue that the difference between #10 and #15 isn’t that big of a deal in this mediocre draft.  Not valuing draft picks like that is just the kind of lazy thinking and poor planning that have gotten the Bobcats into the mess they’re in.  (Hey, Adam Morrison!  He’s awesome in college!  3rd pick, you betcha!!!  It’s all a crapshoot anyways!).

Someone a lot smarter than you, I or Rick Bonnell figured out that the average player drafted in the 10th spot is roughly 31% better than the average player drafted in the 15th spot.  Scroll about halfway down the page to figure 7 and table 2 and the following discussion for the meat of the article.

In this particular draft, the 10th spot gives you a shot at getting Brandon Knight or Terrence Jones — guys that still have some star potential.  At #15, you’re looking at names like Jordan Hamilton, Kenneth Faried or John Henson — guys you’re hoping will carve out a spot in your rotation.

The playoffs are fun, and even if they were clobbered in the first round, the Bobcats would gain experience by participating.

Ahh, the tee-ball argument.  Everyone come to the playoffs, its FUN!  I disagree, getting swept/exposed/embarrassed by the Magic was not fun last year, and getting swept/exposed/embarrassed by the Bulls this year wouldn’t be any fun either.  As far as “gaining experience”, name me a player from last years’ squad who seems to have benefitted from the experience of last year’s playoff sweep.

If you have a young, developing team with most of the big pieces in place, then it’s acceptable to gun for the 7th or 8th playoff spot for “the experience”.  Think last year’s Oklahoma City Thunder, or this year’s Memphis Grizzlies.  But not the Bobcats — not a team sorely lacking talent that relies on a 33-year-old volume shooter to be its “star”.

You can’t convince me finishing ninth in the East is better than finishing eighth.

Agree to disagree, then?

And you sure don’t want to send the message to players that losing is ever better than winning.

Completely agree with this. It’s a very delicate issue and probably the strongest argument against tanking.  My only counter is to say that this probably underestimates the intelligence/maturity of the players.  They aren’t in a Disney movie; they know better than anyone that their squad needs an influx of talent to seriously compete.

Treat injuries conservatively and shift minutes to younger players who need the burn anyways.  The players save face while the losses mount.  As long as the locker room chemistry is good (supposedly the case with the Bobcats) there are probably not going to be any serious negative ramifications from a few extra losses to end the season.

Until next time, I’ll be “chasing lottery luck”.

-Dr. E

POLL : This Season: Where Did It Go Wrong?

  • Trading Tyson Chandler for Dampier (39%, 71 Votes)
  • Not Re-Signing Raymond Felton (14%, 26 Votes)
  • Starting Nazr Mohammed (2%, 4 Votes)
  • Firing Larry Brown (2%, 4 Votes)
  • Trading Gerald Wallace (32%, 59 Votes)
  • Re-Signing Tyrus Thomas (6%, 11 Votes)
  • Cutting Sherron Collins (4%, 7 Votes)

Total Voters: 182

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The Bobcats and the Playoffs

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Today I received an email from the Bobcats.  You see, even though I’m a season ticket holder who’s already re-upped for next season, I haven’t committed to playoff tickets this year — today is the deadline.  It’s easy enough: since I have re-upped for next season, I have the option to “Pay as We Play”, meaning that I’d only be charged after each round (ha! more than one round?) the Cats played in the playoffs.  It would just take a quick phone call to opt in on that plan — why not, right?  But I’ll pass.

I’m hardly risking anything.  But it’s also my quiet (and yes, petty and pointless) protest against the very idea of the Bobcats being in the playoffs this year.  It’s the principle of the matter.

First, the facts.  As of Monday night the Bobcats are tied with the Bucks in ninth place, a full two games behind the 8th place Indiana Pacers, with 13 games left.  Though the Cats have head-to-head matchups remaining with both the Pacers and Bucks, they’ve already blown the season series/tiebreakers with both of those teams.  Other remaining games include Boston and Miami on the road, the Knicks at home, and two matchups with the Magic.

As I post this, ESPN’s John Hollinger’s playoff odds system gives the Bobcats a 16% chance of finishing the season in the 8th spot.  Basketball-Reference.com isn’t even as kind, putting the Cats chances at a meager 9.2%.

Furthermore, the notion that the Bobcats should even be gunning for the 8th playoff spot is ridiculous.  Another sweep, this time by Boston or Chicago? No thanks.

Making the playoffs would also lock the Bobcats into the #15 pick in this year’s draft, while missing out will probably put us at the 9th spot with its small associated chance of moving up to one of the top three picks.  While there doesn’t appear to be any savior in this year’s draft pool, the difference between picking at #9 and #15 is nonetheless important.

So don’t fret about Stephen Jackson’s hamstring and don’t pay much mind to anyone saying how “big” Wednesday’s matchup with the Pacers is.  The Bobcats have no business making the playoffs this year, and won’t.  They probably wouldn’t even if Jack was totally healthy.  With him hurting, it makes more sense to me to shut him down for the season and embark on a full-on tankfest — the 8th pick isn’t out of reach.

-Dr. E