Sources: Cody Zeller is destined to be a Spur, and also, How We Got Mozgoved

It’s been a while since my last post. Please allow me to explain.

Being a Hornets fan is really hard.

I spent the latter weeks of the regular season clinging onto the slim hope that the Hornets could get the 8-seed in the East. And then on March 8th, they lost to the vastly inferior Brooklyn Nets by 14, and a few days later, they lost to the Knicks by 23. Neither game was as close as the score indicates. That is when I threw a white flag up on 2018.

If you read any of my earlier posts, you know that I held two things to be true: 1) Steve Clifford’s time as an effective coach was over (though I knew he would be hired by the Magic, check that Twitter feed to the left!), and 2) Dwight Howard was a black hole on offense.

Both of these situations have now been remedied. By all accounts, an effective replacement for Clifford has been hired in James Borrego. And today’s trade (that will become official after July 6th) of Dwight Howard for Timofey Mozgov, two second round draft picks and cash concerns is a classic case of addition by subtraction.

The Dwight Howard move was terrible. It was never going to work out. Every team he has ever played for claims that he is a cancer in the locker room. He is a notorious goofball. He is a child abuser, which was never going to fly longterm in Charlotte (this is the city that chased the original Hornets franchise out of town because the owner–George Shinn–had an affair with a cheerleader). He is a center in a league where the center position–as Dwight Howard plays it–is no longer important. Atlanta took on the terrible Plumlee contract just to get rid of him. I could go on and on.

Timofey Mozgov may never play meaningful minutes for the Hornets. He may not even be on the roster by Friday. But if this trade results in Kemba Walker staying and/or the shooters on the team getting actual opportunities to shoot and develop a rhythm, this will go down as one of the most important trades in franchise history.

***

In other news: Cody Zeller is destined to be a San Antonio Spur.

Have you ever seen the sweet third passes that the CZA makes on the regular? Those passes have ‘Popovich’ written all over them. Sources say that Cody Zeller is the next Boris Diaw.

Kawhi wants out of San Antonio. The Hornets are in a good spot to make a trade or be a third team facilitator for a draft day trade. My gut says these sources are correct.

***

As for me, I’m in that pre-draft sweet spot as a fan. Anything is possible. Optimism reigns supreme. The Dwight trade has me jazzed. If the Hornets have to go down, I’d rather see them go down missing open threes and running an actual offense than see Kemba pass the ball in to Dwight and then stand around and watch until Dwight shoots just before the shot clock expires. But the Hornets don’t have to go down. The 8-seed is in sight. The time is now.

(Photo courtesy of Sports Illustrated)

Rookie Mistake

Greetings, and welcome to my first post for Baseline Buzz!

First, a brief history: I have been a Charlotte Basketball fan since 1988. My family owned season tickets during the franchise’s golden age (top row section 238, seats 1 and 2). I was at the playoff game when Zo hit the shot to beat the Celtics, and I was at every home playoff game in 2001 when the Bugs swept the Heat (and would have beaten the Bucks if Sam Cassell would have kept his glad-hands off the refs’ backsides). During the decade I lived in San Francisco, I bought NBA League Pass every year specifically for the purpose of watching every Bobcats game, and I was surely the only person to ever purchase a ticket to a game in Oracle Arena to cheer on Gerald Wallace. And no disrespect to Muggsy, Kendall, Johnny Newman, LJ and Zo, but I believe the greatest Hornets lineup of all-time was Baron Davis, David Wesley, Jamal Mashburn, PJ Brown and Elden Campbell (and the best bench player on that team was Eddie Robinson, for what it’s worth).

With Adam’s departure from Baseline Buzz, I am stepping in midseason and attempting to fill some gigantic shoes. It is no simple task, to say the least. Rather than pick one thing to hone in on, I am going to about two bad things, two unknown quantities, and two good things. Without further ado.

NEGATIVES

—Steve Clifford’s Refusal to Give Rookies Meaningful Minutes

Look, I get it. Steve Clifford is an old-school coach, and making rookies earn their place in the Association is an old-school move. The problem is that the Hornets are not old-school good.

I like Steve Clifford, and he is a much better coach than his predecessor. He seems like he would be a fun guy to have a beer with. But his propensity for driving rookies into the ground before they get their feet wet is one of his least endearing qualities. Malik Monk and Dwayne Bacon are both solid picks with gigantic potential upsides, but they need to play in order to develop into anything more than second or third-tier role players. Bacon is a solid second-rounder—if he develops into a solid NBA player, that is all gravy. But Monk needs to be in games early and often. He is a rhythm shooter, and you can’t develop rhythm on the bench. Give him meaningful minutes now, and he could be a star. Bench him so he can “learn the game” and he could be…. reverse-MKG?

—The Dwight Howard Experiment

Speaking of old-school basketball.

Unlike Adam, I hated the Dwight Howard trade from the beginning. The shedding of Plumlee’s contract was huge, and Howard’s star power is undeniable, but Dwight has a reputation of being a cancer in the locker room, and he is an admitted child-abuser.

That being said, he is putting up All-Star numbers on the basketball court, he obviously cares about the team’s performance, and I get the sense that he is trying very hard to push his teammates into the playoffs.

The problem is that he is a black hole on offense. A large portion of the Hornets’ plays so far this season consist of Kemba (or MCW) bringing the ball up court, passing it to Dwight, and then dropping back and watching Dwight either shoot or pump fake until he gets fouled.

In the past, the Hornets offense has worked with Cody Zeller at center because the CZA knows how to make the second, third and fourth pass to a cutting teammate or a shooter out on the perimeter. Of course Cody has been injured for a season and a half, so he hasn’t been an option of late.

Look, Dwight Howard is very good at basketball. There is a solution out there, I am just not sure if that solution is to teach Dwight how to pass to his teammates or look to trade him to a contender who needs a center that doesn’t know how to pass to his teammates. Either way, he has been a disruption to offenses on both sides of the floor.

UNKNOWNS

—The Coaching Situation

Coach Clifford took a hiatus from the team for undisclosed health-related issues, and though Stephen Silas has a strong tie to Charlotte Basketball’s past (his father is former Hornets coach and current season ticket holder Paul “Huggy Bear” Silas), he doesn’t appear to be the answer should Clifford’s health or job performance become a longer term issue.

Jason Kidd just became available. Just throwing that out there.

—The Kemba Walker Fiasco

Floating Kemba Walker’s name in trade conversations was a mistake. Woj knows all and Woj tells all. The only scenarios that make sense regarding this mistake:

1) Motivation

Kemba has been a little stagnant of late. Maybe a trade rumor is the fire he needed to get going.

2) A Godfather Offer

An offer along the lines of Isaiah Thomas, Kevin Love and the Brooklyn pick or a package including Andrew Wiggins makes sense for both sides (Minnesota has always been high on Batum).

3) The Steph Factor

There is a Berenstainian possibility that a trade of Kemba Walker could pull Steph Curry further towards the Hornets in the future.

Reasoning: If Kemba does not get traded, he is all but guaranteed to pass Dell Curry as the leading scorer in Charlotte Basketball history. A trade to preserve Papa Curry’s legacy is sure to be looked upon favorably.

Now, the trade scenarios that do not make sense:

1) Cap Relief

I don’t believe the Hornets are willing to dismantle their franchise to save a few bucks so long as Jordan is at the helm. Jordan wants to win, even if he hasn’t figured out how to do so as an owner.

2) Anything Involving Draft Picks

The Hornets are terrible at drafting and even worse at developing rookies. Trading an All-Star caliber player for draft picks does not make sense for this franchise.

Onto:

POSITIVES

—The Remaining Schedule

Over the first half of the season, the Hornets had one of the toughest schedules in the league (anywhere from the toughest to the fifth toughest, depending on metrics used). For the remainder of the season, they have the easiest schedule in the league. Barring further injury or a dumb trade, the playoffs are still in reach (as of this writing, the Hornets stand four games back of the 76ers for the eighth seed).

—Chemistry

The advantage of developing an organization where you draft and retain players is that the players have the opportunity to learn together and grow together as professionals. Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrest, Cody Zeller, Frank Kaminsky, Malik Monk and Dwayne Bacon have all spent the entirety of their careers as products of the same developmental system. They don’t know anything different than Charlotte Basketball. Injuries to MKG and Zeller have derailed several potentially prime years, but they still know how to contribute if they are able, and everyone mentioned above is still very young.

And speaking of oft-injured players, Nic Batum isn’t a native Hornet, but he has recently built a house in Charlotte, so one can imagine that he has bought into the organization as much as he possibly can. If Dwight Howard and Michael Carter-Williams are able to become more comfortable with their teammates, good basketball could be over the horizon.

Tyson in Reverse | The Baseline Breaks Down the Dwight Howard Trade

Back in July of 2010 then Charlotte head coach Larry Brown and GM Rod Higgins made what is widely considered one of the worst trades of the NBA millenium.

The Bobcats were over the cap and in danger of breaching the luxury tax. They needed to dump salary fast. Their solution: trade Tyson Chandler (who had spent his lone year in Charlotte either hurt or in Brown’s doghouse) to the Mavericks for the immediate cap relief of Erik Dampier’s non-guaranteed deal and the bloated multi-year contracts of Matt Carroll and Eduardo Najera.

Ten months later Chandler was helping Dirk win a ring while career 9th/10th men Najera and Carroll bloated Charlotte’s payroll and took up precious roster spots for years. It was a salary dump trade in which the dumper ended up taking on more salary in the longterm. This move all but cemented the Bobcats’ reputation as a league-wide joke.

A New Era of Competence

Seven years later Charlotte is no longer the laughingstock. In fact, they’ve completely turned the tables by becoming the fleecer in such a deal rather than the fleeced. And it’s all due to competence.

See what happens when your GM and Coach work together?

COMPETENCE: As a former assistant in Orlando, Steve Clifford has long had a great relationship with Dwight Howard. He understands Howard’s game and personality. Few other NBA staffs are in a position to maximize late career Dwight like Charlotte’s. If Dwight is going to achieve a renaissance anywhere in the league it will be as a Hornet.

MORE COMPETENCE: Rich Cho’s negotiating and cap management skills allowed the Hornets to upgrade their short term talent situation, dump seemingly un-dumpable salary and boost their 2nd Round pick to near 1st Round status all in one trade.

This single transaction encapsulates what can happen when both men – each the best this organization has seen at their respective positions – play to their strengths in unison. Bravo, gentlemen.

Worst Case is Still a Better Case

“Yeah, this is a great trade and all…if it was 2011 LMFAO!!!”
–Basic Twitter Troll

Let’s assume disaster for a moment: That the worst of Dwight’s childish antics distract and disrupt. That his soon to be 32 year old body breaks down before the final two years of his contract expire. That his fit on the court never materializes and that he essentially becomes a $50m version of last season’s Roy Hibbert.

The trade is still a win. Why? Let us count the ways:

I. Miles Plumlee is not only a worse player by any measurement but his 3 year contract ran a year longer than Dwight’s. By making the trade, a currently capped out Charlotte team will be able to play in free agency a year earlier than expected.

II. Which is great because guess who is due for a new contract during that time? Kemba Walker. Also both Marvin Williams and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist can opt out that summer so more flexibility in July of 2019 = a VERY GOOD THING.

III. Did I mention that they dumped Plumlee? It was widely viewed as one of the league’s least tradeable contracts and they did so without having to include a pick or prospect to sweeten the deal (see the Lakers and D’Angelo Russell as a counterexample of this).

IV. In fact, Cho was able to somehow move up in the Draft – going from pick 41 of a deep class to 31. That’s the first pick of the 2nd Round, a very interesting spot indeed (more on this later).

V. If Dwight becomes a major problem off or on the court, Charlotte can just tell him to stay home or try and trade him as an expiring next summer. His salary is still less damaging timing-wise than Plumlee’s.

Best Case is Insane

Ok. So what if Dwight isn’t Lance Stephenson 2.0? What if he accepts his role, plays (mostly) hard, takes his vitamins and says his prayers (brother)? Well then, things are suddenly bright indeed.

I. Suppose you have a center who is aging, struggles with back problems and can’t quite play 36 minutes a night anymore…wouldn’t you want to pair him with…

II. A younger center whose body type and strength also prevent him from playing big minutes at the five every night for 82 games. A player who is more mobile guarding on the perimeter, a player who is different in style just enough to give you another look but not so different that you have to change the way you play when he’s out there.

III. Yes I am talking about the potentially tremendous center platoon of Dwight and Cody. Should they be able to put their past feuds and egos (well, ego) behind them this combination should finally give Clifford 48 respectable defensive minutes at center for the first time in his 5 season tenure.

IV. Lack of backup center plagued the Hornets last season. When Cody sat, the team dropped from 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency to 24th.

V. Did I mention defensive rebounding? Because Cliff is obsessed with that stuff and the Hornets (aside from Michael Kidd-Gilchrist) have lacked a true rebounding beast since Big Al’s All-NBA season a few years back. Say what you will about Dwight’s declining game but the man can still ball-board (8th in DRPG, 8th in Contested DRPG). Oh yeah, Howard also ranked 2nd in offensive rebounds and contested ORBPG – so if Cliff finally allows a player to crash the offensive glass, Dwight can convert ‘em.

VI. Rim protection – while Howard is no longer the shot blocking golem he once was (nearly 3 blocks per 36 minutes during his prime, down to 1.5 last season), his strength and reputation will provide at least as much detterence as Cody when Zeller sits. This is a good thing.

VII. Given Dwight’s seniority and rep, it’s a near lock that he’ll be the starter with Cody coming off the bench. Which incidentally means that the Hornets will go from having one of the worst backup center situations in the league to one of the best.

What Next?

With the Draft a little more than 24 hours away, the Hornets roster makeup and motivation for next season is much clearer:

I. The team still has two primary positional needs: Backup PG and Backup Wing

II. After dealing Marco Belinelli in the Howard trade, Charlotte has exactly one player on the roster who shot greater than 36% from three last season (Kemba)

III. Which leads me to believe that unless a highly rated point guard drops (Dennis Smith), the Hornets will use that pick on Duke’s Luke Kennard – who is widely regarded as the best shooter in this class.

IV. While I still love Donovan Mitchell and his game, his shot is streaky and with the point guard market petering out league-wide (Russell to BRK, Fultz to PHI have started a chain reaction), it will be much easier to find a backup one via trade or free agency than a sharp-shooting wing.

V. Kennard’s play-making from the two would also give Charlotte some minor insurance should Batum miss any extended time (which would be a very, very bad thing).

2nd Round Scenarios

If the Hornets do indeed keep their newly acquired 2nd Rounder (they’ve sold or traded all but one in the Cho era) then they’re in prime position to get a potential rotation player on the cheap which would put Cho’s negotiation skills further to the test:

If Cho can uncover a quality player at 31 and then sign him to something like the famed “Hinkie Special” 2yrs + Non-Guaranteed Year + Team Option Year – or even a standard 2-3 year 2nd Round contract – you’re looking at possibly adding in a rotation guy for around $1m per over the next few seasons. For a team as cap strapped as Charlotte this would be HUGE.

As to who they could target with this pick – I have no idea. They worked out Terrance Fergusan and he may drop there. Harry Giles may scare teams off of longterm guaranteed money so could fall. Guys like Josh Hart and Frank Jackson will be there as well. This is strictly a best player available situation and given the depth of this Draft, Charlotte has a shot at a good one.

Give Rich Cho an Extension Already

Cho is in the last year of his contract and MJ has yet to extend him – this trade alone should get him one.

Even if Howard doesn’t play a game for Charlotte, the team was able to trade an untradeable contract while upgrading their draft position and cleared the books for an incredibly important 2019 Free Agency period.

Karmic payback complete. Tyson Chandler helped Dallas win a title. Cho, Cliff and Dwight helped win Charlotte some respectability.

-ASChin
@baselinebuzz

Is All the Losing Worth It for the Bobcats?

So what would be worth a record-settingly uncompetitive season of losing? As a fan, it’s really tough to justify why the Bobcats would be so terrible. The chance to select the next mega-talent in the 2012 Draft is nice. Freeing up some cash to sign one or two upper-tier free agents wouldn’t be so bad, either. Maybe, someone could argue that playing time for some of the Bobcats’ youngsters will develop them into solid players down the line. It’s all kind of hypothetical, so let’s hope the Rich Cho Rehab Plan works out.

It’s All On Cho

After seeing the Oklahoma City Thunder absolutely dismantle the Chicago Bulls on Sunday, I can only dream that we see the Bobcats shine so bright on national television in the future. The Thunder are the success story, while the Sacramento Kings or Washington Wizards might show you the other side of the coin. Hopefully, Rich Cho’s involvement with the Thunder/Sonics right before they got it going will result in the same amazing kind of turnaround for Charlotte’s suffering franchise.

Ease the Pain

When it comes to free agency, we should just take two steps and jump straight to the point. Dwight Howard’s not coming. Deron Wiilliams wouldn’t be worth the trouble even if would join the club. No superstars are targeting the Queen City, but a load of mid-level talent could find a a club like the Bobcats a good place to show their skills if they can be sold on the team’s direction. Some role player types like Matt Barnes, OJ Mayo, or Marco Bellinelli might see the Cats as a good fit for their career if the team shows that they’re putting the right pieces into place. If the front office could pull the strings, they might even land a player like Nicolas Batum or Ersan Ilyasova that could breakout and veer toward All-Star status one day. So, rather than betting it all on the NBA Draft Lottery ping-pong balls over the next few years, a few smart steps in free agency could leave the Cats with a bit more control over their destiny.

Alternately, an argument could be made that a star player would be well worth this embarrassing season. Honestly, the Bobcats could really use some luck in this game. Despite their regular appearances in the Draft Lottery, Charlotte just can’t catch the big one. It’s a shame to think that Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Blake Griffin, and Derrick Rose have all landed in the league since the Bobcats’ first tip in 2004, and Charlotte didn’t snag one of them. Will Kentucky’s Anthony Davis prove to be worth this embarrassing season? He’s putting on a show right now in the NCAA Final Four. As Bobcats fans, we’re probably all hoping to catch a legendary performance in Monday night’s Championship game. Could Davis suit up as a Bobcat, and play like the next Chris Bosh? Would that scenario make us all forget about how bad the Bobcats were this season? And if the Bobcats don’t get the coveted first pick, does any other player help to ease the pain? Davis’ teammate Michael Kidd-Gilchrist or Connecticut’s Andre Drummond wouldn’t be bad consolation prizes. Whoever the Bobcats might pick, the team will need him to be a guaranteed starter and a potential All-Star – someone that can sell jerseys and win games. That’s not so much to ask, right?

POLL : Does a Top Draft Pick Justify This Season?

Definitely Does (38%, 56 Votes)
No Way (34%, 50 Votes)
Hope So (31%, 46 Votes)

Total Voters: 149

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Bobcats Almost Steal One From The Magic

Late Rally Not Enough for The Bobcats to Catch The Magic

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(AP Photo/Chuck Burton)

Charlotte Bobcats lose at home to the Orlando Magic : 91–88

AP Recap | Box Score

Observations

After falling to the Detroit Pistons last night, the Bobcats had a date with the Magic on the second night of their back-to-back. It looked like Orlando felt a little bad about the Playoff sweep and decided not to activate Jameer Nelson (recovering from injury) for the match-up at the Cable Box. Chris Duhon got the start alongside Vince Carter, Quentin Richardson, Rashard Lewis and the intimidating Dwight Howard. Charlotte used their standard starting five – D.J. Augustin, Stephen Jackson, Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw, and Nazr Mohammed. By just pairing those names alongside each other, we should’ve expected a blow-out by the Magic.

The Bobcats should be commended for not digging a huge hole to start the game. They used their homecourt advantage to stick pretty close to Orlando for much of the first quarter, and stayed within striking distance at the half. Unfortunately, Charlotte only had 36 pts at halftime. Not too many teams are going to threaten the Magic with 36 pts going into the 3rd quarter. For nearly all of the second half, the Orlando Magic executed their offense efficiently enough to keep a persistent stiff-arm of around 12pts to hold the lead. The momentum swung Charlotte’s way mid-way through the 4th and the Bobcats’ run coincided with an injury to Vince Carter, allowing the team to nearly steal the game in the final minutes. On the last possession of the game, neither Stephen Jackson, Boris Diaw, nor D.J. Augustin had the firepower to get the final 3 points that the Cats needed to tie the game against the much superior Magic squad.

Dwight Howard Really Is That Good At Basketball

I had intended to use this space to recap how huge Dwight Howard’s slams would be and compare them to the types of dunks that he’s capable of throwing down in the new NBA JAM. Honestly, I feel like I’ve seen him do some things in the past that are way crazier than the moves executed his cartoonish Jam character. Now, after the game, I have to say that the Bobcats did a great job of minimizing his monster dunks. Sure, Dwight had a couple really good ones while the Magic were rolling in the first half. But, I was more impressed by his hook shot from the right, and his 8′ jumper. Nazr Mohammed did his best to affect Howard, but it really just looked embarrassing for ol’ Naz’. Dwight had everything going in the first half, but it seemed that Larry Brown adjusted the guys on defense and they kept Superman playing like a mortal at the close of the game. I’ll touch on this a bit more down the page.

Vince Carter Is Still Pretty Good At NBA Basketball

The first thing I noticed about Vince Carter during the game was his ability to get space to get off a good shot. He may not leap as high as he once did, but he knows when to cut, how to slide around a screen, and exactly how to make a jab step move his defender. Secondly, I was frustrated to see just how good Carter is at selling a foul. The Bobcats play more physical than they ever have, and yet they don’t seem to get the easy whistles. For much of the game, it seemed that Vince was getting Tyrus, Stephen and Boris called for fouls by simply turning his body to get contact in a manner odd enough to get a whistle. If he was fighting through a screen, it was like he would start high and come around the defender twisted and heading down like he had just been whacked in his shoulders. Vince Carter was selling the contact better than Vince McMahon. Lastly, Carter’s injury in the 4th quarter looked bad. He appeared to slip on a wet spot at the top of the key and his legs went in absolute opposite directions. Hopefully, this wasn’t a serious injury.

Gerald Wallace Was On

Crash finished the game with 25 points, and it looked like he had plenty of energy despite going for all but a few minutes against the Pistons on Friday. From what I could tell, that ankle sprain in New Jersey should be behind him soon. Wallace opened the game with a couple of jumpers and helped to spread the floor by knocking down open threes. He seemed to pair well during his time with the other Gerald (Henderson), too. Henderson knocked down a couple of open shots and showed some defensive prowess with a crazy-athletic sprint-to-leap-to-block on Rashard Lewis. Larry Brown should note the benefits of an excessively athletic set of Geralds on the wings.

Good and Bad

Stephen Jackson and Boris Diaw both looked really good and really bad during the game. Stephen Jackson just seems out of sync at times and his bad passes seemed to always result in a score by Orlando. Boris Diaw looked good for stretches and then totally out of place and out of rhythm on offense late in the game. Neither of these guys were horrible, and neither were incredible. If they can both minimize those periods of inexplicable mistakes, the Bobcats would start to look pretty good. While Diaw’s offense went into hiding during the last stretch of the game, he seemed to do a great job guarding Dwight Howard. Larry Brown chose to go really small with Diaw at the center spot, but Orlando couldn’t find a way to let Dwight dominate the paint. Actually, I think Boris had a couple of blocks on Howard in this one. While the Frenchman may have missed the potentially game-tying three-pointer in the last seconds, I’m not sure they would have been that close without his surprisingly solid defense.

Loose Notes

D.J. Augustin appears to be improving. It’s exciting to see him build to his repertoire of skills. His passing, awareness, and shooting are all on the upswing, right now. The crowd at the arena went crazy over his floater in the lane late in the 4th quarter.

Tyrus needs more minutes. When we see Tyrus Thomas come out for a few brief plays in the first half, he seems out of place and he picks up a couple of fouls pretty easily. As he plays for longer stretches, Thomas really starts to influence the game and he plays in rhythm. When he stops pressing, he plays like a serious threat on both ends of the court.

Lastly, Saturday night was Nelly’s birthday and he spent it with us and the Bobcats at Time Warner Cable Arena. Nelly, a partial owner of the Bobcats team, sat courtside and received a big ovation from the audience when he was shown on the big screens above the court. The promo for his upcoming release “Nelly 5.0” did not receive such a warm reception.

Bonus Observation : Eduardo Najera had a pretty great style going in street clothes for the game. If anyone has a picture of Eddie in his white jacket, please post it in the comments.

Next game is Monday night at the Cable Box versus Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and the San Antonio Spurs.

-Mike