Nerlens Noel: High and Low

Baseliners A.S. Chin and Ben Weinrib debate the merits of Kid n’ Play cosplayer/Kentucky freshmen center, Nerlens Noel.

The Nerlens Noel Pre-Draft Debate

ASCHIN: Noel has been 2013’s projected top overall pick from the moment the 2012 Draft was over. Between the length, athleticism and instincts around the basket at both ends, it’s easy to understand why. But here we are, just days before the Draft and there’s talk that the 19-year old Kentucky center may drop out of the top spot. How is this possible? Has the hate gone too far or have the scouts and doctors just had enough time to properly evaluate Noel as a prospect?

BEN: Could there be a better scenario for the Bobcats than drafting Noel? He’s the guy everyone would have expected Charlotte to take had they won the lottery because of his enormous upside and interior presence. Not all great teams have a rim protector, but almost every team with a great rim protector is very good (Indiana, Chicago, San Antonio, Memphis, and even LA). Furthermore, it’s puts Charlotte in prime Wiggins/Parker/Randle position for next summer. What’s not to love with this pick? The dude was a beast at UK and even blew out his knee chasing down and blocking a guard on a fast break.

ASCHIN: I take it that you haven’t listened to the Bill Simmons Father’s Day podcast with Ryen Russillo. Turns out Noel has some world class “bad dudes” running his show from behind the scenes that make Lebron’s entourage look like a MENSA summit by comparison. Nerlens apparently blew off a dozen of the league’s top agents for months before signing with Andy Miller last Friday. Combine that with Noel’s slight frame (tough to add bulk to narrow shoulders), ACL injury, growth plate surgery, raw-as-Biyombo offensive game and you have potentially the WORST Bobcats 2013 Draft candidate. Frankly, Charlotte can’t afford to draft back-to-back-to-back defense-only projects and even if they could, would you really want to invest a Top 5 pick around “the next Theo Ratliff“?

BEN: I actually don’t see the weight issue as such a big deal. Dr. James Andrews recommended Noel drop weight to expedite the recovery, and Noel said he was 228 pounds before the injury. That means he put on 13 pounds in a half year at Kentucky, so he’s shown he can put on weight. But the Bobcats just need to add talent at this point, and he’s the most talented guy on the board. Sure, he may miss two months, but that’s a small sacrifice to make in an otherwise non-competitive season to land the most talented player down the board. He may be Theo Ratliff at the very worst but who is Alex Len if he doesn’t develop an offensive game? Timofey Mozgov? Noel offers the best interior defense in the draft – something the Bobcats desperately need – and he would give them a high-upside 7-footer, something the team has never had. As for the offense, Memphis seems to be doing just fine with about two offensive options, and one of those is Mike Conley. Mike Conley!

ASCHIN: 228lbs?! That’s losing 15% of his body weight in three months – if this were Sean May we were talking about maybe I’d buy it, but a beanpole like Noel? Sounds fishy. Regardless of his physical or mental makeup, I think all this Nerlens talk is doing a severe disservice to the team’s incumbent young rim protector, Bismack Biyombo. Am I crazy for expecting big things from the STILL ONLY 20 YEAR OLD former Lottery pick? Biz really improved his fundamentals this year even if it didn’t show up in the stat sheet and he’s becoming a better on-ball defender game by the game. Also: Biyombo weighs in at a chiseled 245 and still sometimes struggles with uber-bigs like Roy Hibbert (listed at 280). I can only imagine what Hibbert would do to a sub-225 pound bamboo shoot like Noel. #biznation

Bismack Biyombo | #biznation

BEN: I’m a huge Biyombo apologist! Serge Ibaka didn’t break out until age 21 or 22, so I’m not totally concerned he’s having trouble catching the basketball just yet. But imagine how tough it would be to score down low with Biyombo and Noel awaiting. Charlotte could finally stop guards who thrive off penetrating, which has been one of the teams biggest issues. Imagine the two growing together under the tutelage of Steve Clifford–who has a great reputation of developing big men–and Patrick Ewing. Even newly hired Mark Price may help their embryonic offensive games. The only concerns I’m hearing are that Noel won’t play for part of this season (oh no, they won’t win a championship next year!) and his defense is way ahead of his offense. Given that he’s a year younger than Alex Len, don’t you think Noel will be better than where Len is right now in a year? Len has put up back-to-back pedestrian season, including nearly identical offensive numbers to Noel, despite getting much more praise. Len’s line was 12-8-1-2-0 on 53.4% shooting versus 11-10-2-4-2 on 59.0% shooting for Noel. Age matters, too.

ASCHIN: Well, I’m only a little younger than Tim Duncan so by that rationale, I should be drop-stepping Chris Bosh sometime before I hit 40. At some point you realize guys either have elite offensive instincts or they don’t and Noel clearly doesn’t. As well as Serge Ibaka has developed, he’s still very limited offensively. When’s the last time you saw Serge put it on the floor for a straight line drive? High posts? He sticks with his bread & butter 15-20 foot jumpers and finishes around the rim – both firmly in his wheelhouse. I think both Biz and Noel have that type of potential going forward but it would be damn near impossible to play them together without some world-class offensive phenoms surrounding them (see Ibaka & Perk in OKC). I’m not the biggest Cody Zeller fan in the world but I at least understand the philosophy behind considering him as the pick. You’d love to pair Bismack or Noel with a highly skilled floor spacer – especially with a short-range player like MKG at the other forward spot. So it’s gotta be either Biz OR Noel. And I’ll take Biyombo’s work ethic, attitude and physical size over Nerlens any day. #biznation

Also, Noel wouldn’t be able to suit up for the team until at least the All-Star break. I know that you are firmly in the pro-Tank ’13 camp but don’t you think it’s a tad bit disrespectful to ask thousands of fans to spend their hard-earned money on a team BUILT TO LOSE for a THIRD CONSECUTIVE YEAR?

BEN: I don’t believe for a second you’d rather take Zeller over Noel because he’s a “better fit”. I’d rather find fits for elite talent than fit together lesser talent. Just look at when Minnesota drafted Wes Johnson over DeMarcus Cousins because they needed a wing player. As for the last question, I think you can lower ticket prices as a good will offer if you’re really worried about fans, since winning will ultimately draw in the most money. That’s why I’d rather take the best talent (that also allows the team to capitalize on its likely three draft selections next year). Sure, Andrew Wiggins is far from assured, but from the looks of it, Jabari Parker, Julius Randle, Aaron Gordon, and Marcus Smart will be very good, too. A top-five choice if you draft Noel? That’s almost assured. Nearly every NBA superstar was taken near the top of the lottery, so why not go all-in on the best talent in this draft and the most hyped draft in 11 years?

ASCHIN: You lost me at “elite talent”. Chad Ford has Noel grouped with a half dozen other prospects in his 3rd Tier – that usually means starter not superstar. I just think Biz and Noel are the same player with similar upside. Nerlens has the edge in finishing instincts around the bucket while Biyombo has the will and physical size that will allow him to defend the league’s elite centers. As for the ’14 Draft, Marcus Smart was projected to be selected behind Noel all season long before he decided to return to OSU. And don’t forget, this time last year Shabazz Muhammed was everyone’s favorite savior. Remember all those “2012: The Greatest Draft Ever” articles? Didn’t exactly turn out that way.

When you combine the Lottery’s odds with perpetual Draft class uncertainty and the Bobcats’ less than stellar Draft record (Cho has been better but far from perfect), you are basically playing the PowerBall with your fans’ time and money. It’s irresponsible and short-sighted. Case in point: during the Hornets’ heyday, NOT ONCE did the team’s fans have championship aspirations. Not once. All the sell-outs, all of the love from the Muggsy to Divac to Mashburn and B-Diddy eras was earned from simply being competitive and hard-working. That’s really all the city ever asked from ’88-’98 – before the lockout and all the Shinn nonsense. Charlotte isn’t Vegas, it isn’t a win-or-gome home town. It only wants you to compete, play hard and not embarrass anyone. That’s pretty much the opposite of tanking.

BEN: Looks like we just differ in philosophies, and that’s okay. However, judging by Cho’s history and reported philosophy, I’m guessing he’s firmly in the Noel camp. Sure, he’s warted, but everyone else in the draft is warted, too. The one point I keep coming back to is that the potential three draft picks next year are among Charlotte’s biggest assets. You make a good point about overrating drafts, but no prep player recently has received the hype of Wiggins or even Parker. They can’t afford to squander having multiple high draft picks in such a highly-touted class, an opportunity that won’t come around for years. Since they already owe Chicago a first-rounder, they have no choice but to go all-in on the 2014 draft. And Nerlens Noel represents the chance to land the best talent in both drafts combined.

2010-11 Bobcats Season Preview: Front and Center

Will the Bobcats’ center-by-committee approach work again?

The Charlotte Bobcats have a number of pressing issues/weaknesses to deal with as the regular season looms. Chief among them is probably the point guard dilemma, but close behind is the five spot.

Despite projected starter Tyson Chandler’s disappointing and injury-riddled campaign last year, the Cats actually got decent play from the spot. Out of necessity, Larry Brown went with a center-by-committee approach and it worked.

Out of necessity, he’ll do the same this season. Unfortunately, it’s unlikely that we’ll be as pleasantly surprised by the results.

Nasty Naz

When Chandler was ineffective at the start of last season, Nazr Mohammed saw increased minutes and impressed. When Chandler had to completely shut it down for a big hunk of the middle of the season, Nazr assumed the starting role. Fortunately, he was in great shape and had an exquisite, veteran’s understanding of Larry Brown’s system.

Mohammed turned in a career-best 19.64 PER, largely due to hitting the boards hard and hitting a high percentage of his shots (55.3%). The league average for PER is 15, and Dwight Howard notched a 24.07 last year, so that gives you an idea of how good Mohammed was last season.

Mohammed enters the season as the projected starter, and will probably be called on to play more minutes than the 17 per game he averaged last year. Great, right?

Probably not. As ESPN.com’s PER-father John Hollinger has explained, players who suddenly have a big jump in their productivity/efficiency late in their careers rarely sustain it in subsequent years. He calls it the “fluke rule” and the 33-year-old Mohammed certainly qualifies for it.

Hollinger’s statistics suggest there is over a 90% chance that Mohammed’s play will regress by about 3 PER points. This would put Mohammed back around his career PER average, so if it indeed happens, it would serve as a regression to a personal mean as well as an example of Hollinger’s fluke rule. To conclude, statistics imply that Mohammed will return to being a slightly-above-average player this season.

Don’t buy dorky statistical arguments? How about the simple age/health argument? Not evident amongst last year’s sparkling PERs and percentages is that Mohammed did eventually break down. After a particularly strong 5-game stretch to begin last February in which he averaged over 31 minutes a game, Mohammed began suffering back spasms. He gutted out a few more games, but ultimately sat out about two months. He returned late in the season looking nothing like the guy who had started 29 games earlier in the season.

Now as anyone who follows Naz on Twitter knows, the guy is serious about keeping himself in shape in the offseason, so we can hope for the best. But at 33 years old and with a history of back issues, logic dictates that it is unlikely that Mohammed will be able to offer more than 15-20 minutes per game and/or more than 60-65 games this season — which brings us to our next subject.

Theo Ratliff vs. Gana Diop

Due to a combination of foul trouble, injury concerns, and general ineffectiveness, Tyson Chandler wasn’t able to provide more than 20-25 minutes per game even when he was available. So when Nazr’s back went out, Larry Brown was faced with the possibility of giving Gana Diop big minutes. The horror.

Fortunately, Brown’s buddy Gregg Popovich had Theo Ratliff collecting dust on the end of his bench in San Antonio. Essentially given to the Cats for free at the trade deadline, Ratliff was key to the Bobcats stretch run as they held on to a playoff spot. The ageless wonder/freak of nature stepped in and competently manned the middle. Ratliff was thus rewarded with a guaranteed $1.3 million dollar one-year contract with the Lakers for the upcoming season, his 16th in the league.

Which leaves Larry Brown again facing the possibility of giving Gana Diop significant minutes. The horror.

Gana Diop is unspeakably bad on the offensive end. I’ll spare you the statistical analysis because I think we can all agree that it’s like playing 4-on-5 when the Cats have the ball. Diop may be an above average shot-blocker and decent rebounder on the defensive side, but it doesn’t make up for the brutality of his offensive game.

Nonetheless, I expect that in the upcoming season, Diop will easily top the 262 total minutes he played last season, if only because he’s one of only two true centers on the roster. There has been a little noise during training camp about Diop being in better shape, maybe even showing some improvement on the court. But if Diop has to regularly average more than 8-10 minutes per game, the Cats are in huge trouble. I figure he may be able manage about 5 minutes per game, depending on the matchups.

So who do the rest of the minutes at the five go to?

Going small with Boris & Tyrus

No surprise here. The Cats frequently ended games last season with a smallball lineup featuring Boris or Tyrus effectively playing center. Though he is one of the least athletic players on the roster, Boris is one of the better on-ball defenders. He’s big, smart and patient, and can handle many of the other centers in the league. Tyrus, on the other hand, is one of the most athletic players on the roster. He’s not a great on-ball defender at this point; instead his specialty is coming from the weak side to block and disrupt shots in the paint.

My guess is that Larry Brown will usually end games this year with a lineup of DJ (or Livingston?), Jack, Crash, Boris and Tyrus. And the difference is, this year I would expect to see Boris and Tyrus as the only bigs for stretches in the first half as well. Maybe Dominic McGuire as well.

Boris was mentioned in a couple different trade rumors this offseason. There were several reasons those trades didn’t go down, but one that was whispered a few times was that Brown was reticent to give Diaw up. Boris is one of the top five talents on the roster, but that’s not reason alone to be so particularly averse to trading him; you have to give to get in a trade. No, the reason is that, due to the Bobcats lack of a true, 30-35-minute-a-game, #1 center, Boris is going to be playing a lot of minutes at the five this season.

So there you go. The Bobcats are thin at the five. Larry Brown will again try to cobble decent play at the spot out of the available talent, but there’s even less there than last year. Our playoff aspirations rely upon Mohammed replicating his 2009-10 season while staying even healthier than he did, and the Cats being able to play smallball for around 15-20 minutes per game.

-Dr. E

Bobcats Schedule Released : Season Prediction

The Bobcats 2010-2011 Game Schedule Is Out!

The Charlotte Bobcats have released their calendar for the upcoming NBA season, and now we have just short of 3 months to mull it over. Whenever the league rolls out the run-down of games, fans can use their team’s schedule as a rough sketch for expectations.

View the Bobcats new schedule

Last year, I browsed over Charlotte’s schedule and considered the state of the team versus each competitor to make a loose prediction that they’d win about 36 games or so. I’m happy that my pessimism was overcome by Rod Higgins’ efforts to snag Captain Jack from the Warriors and Larry Brown’s friendly deal with the Spurs for Theo Ratliff. The Bobcats far exceeded my expectations last season.

After taking an estimated guess with some “analysis” of next season’s schedule, I’m betting that the Bobcats are on the path for another 40-45 win season. This should keep them around the 7th or 8th spot of in the Eastern Conference. So, it looks like more Playoff basketball in Charlotte next April.

How could the Bobcats improve their record from last season?

Michael Jordan and the management crew have an appetite for mid-season upgrades. Will they be able to clear some cap space, to take advantage of another club’s troubles next year? This type of move could bring a Point Guard, if DJ Augustin look to be in too far over his head at the start of the season.

Can fans still hold out hope that the Cats have a masterpiece of deal lined up involving Erick(a) Dampier? Or, can we expect Dampier to stick with the team after they waive him?

Weekend Links: Chris Paul Madness Edition

Chris Paul trade news/rumors continue to dominate the NBA news-and-blog-o-sphere as we head into the weekend. But there’s still some other interesting stuff going on, including Gerald Wallace making a push to be included on Team USA’s final roster this summer. Here’s your required reading for the weekend.

Chris Paul

ESPN’s Chris Broussard provides an update on Paul’s wishlist, along with the reality check regarding which teams on the list could actually come up with a decent package to return to New Orleans in a trade. Broussard does mention that the Bobcats are one of the teams with interest in pursuing Paul — first time I’ve seen a national, mainstream, traditional media member acknowledge the Bobcats being in the mix.
Paul will be sitting down with new Hornets coach Monty Williams and GM Dell Demps on Monday to discuss his future with the team. Peter Finney from The Times-Picayune opines on how Williams and Demps should approach that meeting.
Fresh off his run of blistering pieces critical of Lebron’s “Decision”, Yahoo’s Adrian Wojnarowski warns that Chris Paul has succumbed to too much influence from Lebron/Worldwide Wes/CAA/LRMR/etc. and needs to check himself before damaging his reputation.
NYT’s Howard Beck reports that Paul, perhaps cognizant of the above sentiment, has not yet hired James’ LRMR marketing firm — though my guess is that this is just semantics/a formality.

Stephen Jackson/Home Invasion

There are no new developments in the story of the home invasion/armed robbery at Stephen Jackson’s house Wednesday morning, but here’s the link from the Observer if you never got around to reading up on the story.
Rick Bonnell did offer a few additional thoughts on the story on his blog. The whole thing is a shame — just when Jackson’s image was turning the corner after the Bobcats’ success last year, here comes bad news again. Not suggesting that being targeted like this is in any way his fault, but you have to be concerned when trouble just seems to follow some people. Also, nice job by ‘the gates’ in his gated community. Strong work. Here’s hoping that Jack’s wife is OK and that the bad guys get caught.

Gerald Wallace/Team USA

Gerald Wallace is still out in Vegas at the Team USA camp. When he was initially named to the squad, I thought it was a nice acknowledgement of how far he had come as a player, but didn’t think much of his chances at making the final cut to represent the US at this summer’s FIBA World Championsips in Turkey due to his marginal outside shooting ability. But with all of the Redeem Teamers begging off, Amare Stoudemire’s crip-eye, and injuries to David Lee and Robin Lopez, it’s starting to look like Gerald has a real shot. ESPN’s Chris Sheridan feels that Wallace has the inside track to make the squad, owing largely to his size and defensive tenacity. On the other hand, I asked Ric Bucher about Gerald’s chances on Twitter and he DMed me back “unlikely”.
Bobcats.com has a bunch of Gerald/Team USA content here, including video interviews with Coach K. I have mixed feelings about Gerald making the squad. First, as mentioned above, I personally feel he’s kind of a long shot due to his mediocre outside shooting — you just have to be able to knock down deep and midrange shots in international ball. But Wallace’s primary competition in making the cut is probably Andre Igoudala, who isn’t exactly a deadeye shooter himself, so we’ll see. Second, Gerald has played a ton of minutes over the past few years, and will no doubt be relied upon for big minutes again in 2010-11 for the Cats. His ‘balls-to-the-wall’ style of play means potential injuries loom around every pick and attempted block anyways, and extended minutes means nagging injuries continue to nag, or even worsen.
Team USA sang Happy Birthday to Gerald yesterday as the team prepared for tonight’s intrasquad scrimmage that will be televised live on ESPN2 at 10pm ET.

Shaq

Shaq is still a free agent, and has a list of preferred destinations as well. As the Bobcats now only employ Nazr Mohammed and Gana Diop (I’m assuming Dampier is not on the roster opening night) at center, and with last year’s stopgap solution Theo Ratliff off the market, there has been some sentiment around the Bobcats blogosphere that Shaq might be an acceptable short-term pickup. NYT’s Howard Beck updates us on the ‘dwindling’ market for Shaq, with Atlanta, Dallas and Miami having passed on the Diesel.
Shaq reportedly wants a two-year deal for a good bit of money and a chance to compete for a championship. He may have to settle for one or the other, and Fanhouse’s Tim Povtak is reporting that the Celtics are at the top of O’Neal’s wish list of destinations. Boston would be nice, if only for the eventual Shaq-Nate Robinson buddy cop comedy that would grow out of it.

-Dr. E

Chander Opts Out of Opt Out

chandler-returning Our (not-so) long, regional nightmare is over. Tyson Chandler has reportedly decided not to exercise the option in his contract that would have allowed him to forego the last year on his contract and become a free agent tomorrow. Tyson is due $12.6 million in 2010-11 to finish off the contract he signed years ago with New Orleans.

Caught up in the Summer of 2010 Free Agency Frenzy, Chandler’s camp leaked word to the media a few weeks back that he was considering opting out and testing free agency. The argument for doing so was likely two-pronged.

1) So many teams have made so much cap space this summer that one or two are likely to whiff on the big name players (coughKnickscough) and then scramble to spend their money on second (or third) tier free agents. So in effect, yes, Tyson was eyeing Lebron’s sloppy seconds. Additionally, he may have been hoping the Cats would simply resign him to a new long-term deal, a la what Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce are doing this summer. And…

2) A long term contract negotiated this summer may be better than one negotiated next summer, as the NBA’s current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) is due to be renegotiated in time for next summer and will likely limit some of the financial/contractual perks that players currently enjoy.

Chandler opting out would have been a Catch-22 for the Cats. Basically, it’s tough to lose a starter to free-agency without compensation, especially a starting big man. Nazr Mohammed and Theo Ratliff played center-by-committee admirably last year when Chandler was out, and we’re all hoping we can get something out of Alexis Ajinca this year, but to lose Tyson outright to free agency would have left us weakened down low.

On a positive note, it would have opened up a chunk of room under the salary cap with which to sign a free agent. But for what? The position that the Cats most need to upgrade at is PG, and there aren’t any decent free agent PGs out there.

So it looks like Tyson will be collecting his $12.6 million from the Cats while roaming the paint at the Cable Box next year.

Or will he?

It’s been widely rumored that the Cats are looking to deal this summer. Makes sense, it’s the only avenue we have to upgrade/remix the roster. And a decent, reasonably useful, legitimately-sized center on a big expiring contract is just the kind of guy that other teams would likely be willing to trade for.

Chandler for Monta Ellis + a future pick, anyone?