Nic Batum: The Upside of Winning

The old man places his grandson on his knee. “Child, let me tell you about the good old days. The days filled with happiness and excitement. Our team had just drafted a nineteen year old kid – a freshmen, just out of college. Boy, you shoulda seen that kid’s upside.”

The child looks up at his grandfather, puzzled. “What’s ‘upside’?”

The old man gets a twinkle in his eye. “Why, upside is – well, it’s hope. It’s the feeling that eventually this young man will be very good and lead us to the promised land.”

The boy is sharp. His mind sorts out the logic. “Well did he? Did he turn out good and lead us to the promised land?”

“No. No that never happened. But man, you shoulda seen his upside.”

I.

It’s the day of the Draft. Fans are obsessed with potential. It’s fun. For a while. And then it’s not. We want to see results. Fans will not reminisce into their twilight years about Steph Curry’s upside. They will reminisce about his MVP season, his championship season. In fact, Curry never really had any upside as a junior coming out of Davidson. He was a physically limited combo guard who could really shoot. Crazy measurables? Hardly. Now he’s a champ.

The Hornets haven’t won 50 games since the late ‘90s. I remember those teams but I’m also closer to forty than thirty. So many younger Charlotte NBA hoops fans have never known what it’s like to cheer for a winning team. Michael Jordan has decided that it’s time to change that. Immediately.

II.

Nic Batum can pass and shoot. Two things the Hornets struggled with mightily last season. A team starting Kemba Walker at point guard needs a wing compatriot who can facilitate in the half-court and defend. A team with Al Jefferson at center needs a wing compatriot who can stretch the floor, complete entry passes and keep his man from running free into the paint. Batum checks all of these boxes. All of them. I posited a Batum trade two weeks ago for these very reasons. If Charlotte is intent on building around Kemba and Al, then adding a player like Nic is non-negotiable. The system simply won’t work without one.

III.

This trade is impossible to grade until you know two things: A.) Noah Vonleh’s realized upside and B.) Nic Batum’s next contract. Noah was a consensus Lottery pick last year for a reason. He’s a physically gifted (if non-athletic) big man who can score in a variety of ways. He can rebound and block shots. He might be a star. We don’t know. Coach Clifford rarely played him last season and immediately after the trade there was some chatter that Charlotte found his inability to grasp basics of the NBA game worrisome. He’s still only nineteen years old so it may take several more years before we know exactly what the Hornets gave up.

In the meantime Batum is on an expiring contract. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent next season and can walk freely. Sure, Charlotte will have his “Bird Rights” but given the landscape of the new CBA, that really doesn’t mean anything. Perhaps Rich Cho and Nic’s people have some sort of understanding in place – sell Batum on Charlotte this season and reward him next July – again, we shall see. Hopefully Nic enjoys the Queen City more than the last French baller – Boris Diaw – who was so miserable in the South that he transformed into Paul Blart: Mall Cop.

IV.

All this said, it’s worth the risk. Batum and MKG on the wings is the East’s best defensive perimeter duo. Nic did wonders for Damian Lillard’s career as a secondary pick and roll ballhandler and he’ll do much the same for Kemba. Big Al has an underrated pick and pop shot out to around eighteen feet and Batum can run similar plays with Jefferson that he did with LaMarcus Aldridge. If the proposed Jeremy Lamb trade goes through, Clifford will almost certainly trot out MKG/Batum/Lamb/Kemba small ball lineups with either Spencer Hawes or Cody Zeller at center. The sort of ball movement and shot-making these lineups produce will leave Hornets fans confused, wondering if they’d mistakenly tuned into a Western Conference team instead.

V.

Finally, they’re not finished. The Draft is tonight and the Hornets love making trades. Expect the unexpected. Draft Frank Kaminsky? Why not. Trade him to the New York Knicks? Why not. Trade him in a package for Carmelo Anthony? At this point, why not. Michael Jordan wants his team to win games and make this city proud again. Unlimited Upside? Defiantly no. The Upside of Winning is so much sweeter.

-ASChin
@baselinebuzz

Bobcats Routed By Celtics

"Microcosm" by Bob Leverone/AP

The Bobcats reached a new low in their 93-62 blowout loss to the Boston Celtics Saturday night at the Cable Box. Quite literally the 63 points represents the Cats lowest output this season, and overall it’s hard to imagine things getting much worse than this.

AP Recap | Box Score

You knew it was going to be a rough night offensively for the Cats, going up against Boston’s D. Early on, though, it appeared as if the Celtics might have an equally rough night. Both teams struggled to get and make shots as the Celtics limped to a 20-16 lead after the first quarter.

However, the Celtics were eventually able to cobble together some buckets from Kevin Garnett and their bench into a respectable evening. But the Bobcats regressed further and further; inasmuch as its possible to regress from a 16 point opening quarter. Thus, the Celtics ‘respectable evening’ turned into a complete demolition of the Bobcats.

For the game, the Cats shot 33.8% (including 1-11 3PT), were outrebounded 48-38, gave up 21 turnovers, and had 10 of their shots blocked. They continued to struggle from the free throw line to boot, hitting only 13-23.

It’s one thing to shoot poorly and commit more turnovers than usual against one of the best defenses in the league; but the other stuff (being badly outrebounded, having shots blocked and missing free throws) is indicative of the deeper issues that are engulfing this team.

Rick Bonnell wondered if the Friday night loss to the Pacers was the “beginning of the end” for Larry Brown in Charlotte. After tonight, you have to wonder if we’re closer to the end, period.

The body language is bad team-wide. No one has any confidence in their offensive game. The effort on the defensive end is not there. The two leaders, Gerald Wallace and Stephen Jackson, are not leading. Essentially, the Bobcats appear to have checked out on Larry Brown and each other.

Meanwhile, the Carmelo Anthony trade rumors have picked up again, and again the Bobcats are rumored to be on the periphery of the discussions. ESPN’s Chris Broussard’s source describes Michael Jordan’s attempt to get Carmelo as an effort “to save the Bobcats’ season.”

In a similar vein, it’s been reported that in the wake of this blowout, Michael Jordan addressed the team in the locker room after the game.

The shakeup is coming soon, folks.

Observations

The Bobcats MVP for the night has to be Tyrus Thomas, who sat out the game with a pulled quad muscle, but looked surprisingly dapper in a two-tone grey suit with tie. I say surprisingly because I would have guessed that Tyrus would be more inclined to go with the Sean May benchwear look (baggy jeans, baggy untucked shirt, oversized jacket). But no, Tyrus went all GQ.
On a serious note, Nazr Mohammed probably had the best game of any Bobcat (14 points on 7-11 shooting, 5 rebounds). The Celtics were down to their fourth string center, rookie Semih Erden, and Nazr took him to school a bit in the first half. However, in a curious move, Larry Brown sat Nazr in favor of Kwame Brown for much the second half because of Nazr’s three fouls. So Nazr, the most effective Bobcat tonight, ended the game with only 17 minutes. What are you saving him for?
It pains me to have to write this, but Gerald Wallace looks awful. 2-15 FG tonight — all bricks, charges and getting his shots blocked. If Gerald was more diabolical, I’d wonder if he was trying to force a trade or get his coach fired. He’s not that way (at least I don’t think so) so I have to think simply that he’s particularly affected by the funk that the whole team is in.
DJ was brutal tonight: 0-8 FG with 4 turnovers.
Next game is Tuesday; the Raptors will be in town for a 7PM start.

-Dr. E

be sure to follow Dr. E, ASChin, and Cardboard Gerald on Twitter

Bobcats Squeak By Formerly Streaking Nuggets

Gerald Wallace's textbook jumper (via Kent Smith/NBAE/Getty Images)

The Charlotte Bobcats cooled off the streaking Denver Nuggets 100-98 on Tuesday night at the Cable Box. The Nuggets came in winners of seven in a row and trying to get head coach George Carl his 1000th NBA win, but ran into a Bobcats team desperate to right the ship after suffering an ugly loss over the weekend.

And so the desperate home team did just enough to win. There were some nice signs, which I’ll note below. But as nice as it is to notch a victory over a good opponent and temporarily quiet the negative buzz that had been growing around the team, there are still glaring problems.

The Bobcats have been very shaky late in games this year. Tonight they led by 8 with 90 seconds left, but let the Nuggets right back in it with sloppy play that continued right down to the buzzer, allowing Chauncey Billups a chance at a tying jumper at the buzzer. The way it was going, I half-expected Chauncey to stop at the three-point line and drain a game-winner.

Additionally, turnovers continue to haunt the Bobcats — they had 18 of them, leading to 28 Denver points. The defense, while adequate tonight, is still several notches below the level it was at last year. Nazr Mohammed is bringing very little to the table. Tyrus Thomas still hasn’t quite taken that step that we were all hoping he would this year.

AP Recap | Box Score

Observations

For one half, it was like we had the old Gerald Wallace back. Crash had 17 at halftime, including two alley-opp jams. But in the second half Gerald was conspicuously quiet, adding only another three points. He also missed six free throws.
Despite a sore calf, Stephen Jackson led the way with a very solid 23 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists. Jack was making love to his jumper tonight with 11 3-point attempts — and only tw0 free throw attempts — but he hit five of those 3-pointers, so we’ll let it slide.
Wallace, Jackson, and Boris Diaw shared the task of defending Melo tonight and acquitted themselves pretty well. Melo was held to 22 points on 21 shots and had 4 turnovers — a pretty pedestrian line for him. Then again you have to wonder if that kind of line will become more typical for Melo as he plays out the string this year with a team he has no intention of being with next year.
Tyrus Thomas was very effective in limited minutes tonight: 16 points (6-8 FG, 4-4 FT) with 4 rebounds in just 15 minutes. Ty would have almost certainly been out there for several more minutes to close out the game, but left with “left quad tightness” and didn’t return.
I understand that Larry Brown is always searching for the next George Lynch, but I’ll be glad when the Dom McGuire Project is over. Since McGuire has been available over the past few weeks, he’s been averaging about 15 minutes a game. Problem is, he hasn’t produced much. Bigger problem is, those 15 minutes are Derrick Brown’s minutes. I have no problem with McGuire getting some burn now — LB needs to get comfortable with what he can and can’t do out there — but Derrick Brown is younger and has a higher ceiling. He’s the one that needs the burn.
Had to chuckle when I saw this blog post from Bonnell about Larry Brown gushing that Monday’s practice was the best in months. The first commenter did the honors: “Practice? We talkin bout practice!?” Never gets old.

-Dr. E

Can DJ Cut It?

All Summer, Charlotte’s GM Worked Hard To Avoid This Situation. But, It’s Now On DJ Augustin To Lead The Bobcats

As the Bobcats sputtered through their first Playoff ride last spring, Charlotte fans seemed finished with former starting point guard, Raymond Felton. Despite the poor play of his understudy, DJ Augustin, the clamor over Felton’s contract expectations and Playoff stumble signaled the end of the love for the ex-Tarheel. The Bobcats made no effort to resign Felton, despite the lack of a viable replacement at the point guard spot.

Yea, it was the free-wheelin’ free agency season of 2010, so we all believed that the trade-happy Bobcats were surely gonna find someone to play the point better than any Bobcat before him.

Over the summer, Toronto had a deal worked out with Charlotte and Phoenix that would have delivered Jose Calderon as the new starting point guard for the Bobcats. Just before that trade agreement was finalized, the basketball gods interceded to notify Michael Jordan that he was about to make another boneheaded management decision. Quickly, that situation was diffused and Toronto was stuck with their oft-injured Spaniard. Still, we all knew that something was going to happen over the summer. Something had to happen, right?

The Erick Dampier trade seemed promising, until no other team showed the slightest interest in Dampier’s supposedly valuable $13 million non-guaranteed contract. It really seemed like the Bobcats were lining up their chess pieces for a masterful play, but then they just left the room, hopped on the sofa and turned on the Playstation.

Shooting Bricks In Free Agency

Last week’s “news” report about Devin Harris finding his way to Charlotte in the Melo-to-the-Nets swap was just enough to make me believe that Charlotte’s front office had set themselves up perfectly to take advantage of the messy circumstances that are inevitable in the NBA. Man, I was crazy psyched for that trade to go through. In my excitement, I high-fived fellow baseliner Deesdale, and even left a semi-drunken voice mail to Bobcats Baseline’s foreign correspondent, A.S. Chin. (He’s 12 hours ahead, so maybe he’d know when the deal was finalized – right?)

Then, we found out that the super-complicated, 4 team trade was crumbling and it was later reported that Devin Harris hated the idea of playing in Charlotte. So, it was back to the drawing board for GM Rod Higgins and Michael Jordan as training camp was set to begin. Last week, Larry Brown gave us the old “Larry Brown” routine and griped about the state of the roster during his first meeting with the media. The next day, he praised some guys for their hard work and conditioning, and so it goes…

Now, As It Stands – 6′ 0″

Today, we’re still wondering what the Bobcats are going to do to get an NBA starter-quality point guard? It looks like DJ Augustin is next up on the depth chart, but it’s clear that the team has scrambled all summer to avoid this situation. Can Larry Brown turn Augustin into a capable starter over the next few weeks? It was rumored that Larry Brown made the call to draft Augustin over Brook Lopez. How long can Larry try to justify that opinion before he sends DJ off, like so many past Bobcats?

Another way to consider this would be to ask – Can DJ Augustin turn himself into a true, starter-quality point guard in the next few weeks? The Bobcats have given the media some nice bits about DJ’s “confidence” and new assertiveness as a leader. Now that he holds the reins, it would be great to see DJ make huge strides as a player. Still, I have to wonder if he’s got what it takes to meet Larry Brown’s demands and the fans’ expectations.

– Mike

POLL : Can DJ Cut It?

DJ Can Be A Star
(19%, 36 Votes)
DJ Can Be A Starter
(58%, 112 Votes)
DJ Will Be Traded
(18%, 34 Votes)
DJ Will Be Benched
(6%, 11 Votes)

Total Voters: 193

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What To Do with Dampier? – Part 2

PLUS: Carmelo Perception vs. Gerald Wallace Reality

canthony_billups

MEgo-Mania© has again swept the Association with the latest contestent being none other than Johnny Sucker Punch himself, Carmelo Anthony. Within hours of Ric Bucher’s ‘Melo scoop, the national rumor mill threw little old Charlotte a bone by insisting that the Bobcats were, in fact, a legitimate dark horse to land Carmelo due to his Brand Jordan ties and the Nuggs cap-strapped lust of Erik Dampier’s insta-expiring contract. Immediately the internet was flooded with columnists, blogs and commenters weighing in: “What could the Bobcats possibly send Denver to pry ‘Melo away!!!??? Gerald Wallace and Damp’s expiring? Throw in some draft picks??? Derrick Brown and Gerald Henderson too! Maybe some cash? And take back Kenyon Martin’s dead weight contract, yeah, that’d would at least make ‘em think about it!!!”

With Steve Austin making a comeback splash this summer in The Expendables, let me channel the spirit of Stone Cold in my response to this nonsense:

“Carmelo Anthony, what? That mealy-mouth sonofabitch, what? Couldn’t play lock-down defense on a Roomba, what? Sucker-punchin’ yellow belly beady-eyed overrated idiot, what?”
(CUT TO: Stone Cold Stunner on ‘Melo, Austin mocks an incapicitated Carmelo with a two fingered salute while wearing a black t-shirt and jean shorts. WHAT?)

Someone please refresh my memory. What exactly has Carmelo Anthony accomplished during his first seven seasons in the Association? At least Lebron has been to an NBA finals. Melo can’t even say that. He’s a high-octane scoring dynamo, a one dimensional player who has a catchy name and often plays on national television. Basically, he’s the new Vince Carter. End of story.

Kelly Dwyer of Ball Don’t Lie summed it up best in his Small Forward Rankings last month. Ranking Gerald Wallace 4th and Carmelo 3rd, he writes:

I would have no problem (with) flipping (Wallace) with Carmelo Anthony on more than a few nights. Anthony’s offense is as good as Wallace’s D, but Wallace’s offense is so, so much better than Carmelo’s defense.

QUICK LOOK AT GERALD WALLACE (IN COMPARISON TO CARMELO):

Only two years older.
Costs half as much ($10 million average base versus ‘Melo’s upcoming MAX extension).
Doesn’t dominate the ball. Can score without having plays called for him.
Plays outstanding man and team defense. Best rebounding small forward in the league.
Team leader who has the respect of the lockerroom.

So why would the Bobcats consider anything other than a straight swap of Wallace for Anthony? Simple, Carmelo’s perceived value is higher. Higher in the mind of the casual fan and higher in the mind of televsion executives who decide which teams get national broadcasts. Mark Mainstream hears the name “Carmelo Anthony” and associates it with “talented.” Again, ‘Melo is the new Vince Carter. The Bobcats are still trying to lure in fans and establish an identity while trying to prevent another season of full-scale financial catastophe. ‘Melo’s perceived value and name recognition could help. I just hope the team doesn’t severely over-pay in order to get him. Now back to our regularly scheduled programming:

DAMPIER SOLUTION PART TWO: TRADE HIM

If anything worthwhile has come out of these ME-lo rumors, it’s the fact that the billionaire Kroenke family has grown tired of dropping $20+ million in luxury tax payments to the league every year. As previously mentioned, the Nuggets aren’t exactly lining the halls with Larry O’Brian trophies so cutting team salary this year (with the Lakers, Celtics, Magic, Heat clearly ahead of them) makes a lot of sense. There’s been a lot of talk of a Chauncey Billups/Dampier straight up swap and I’d be all for it except for the fact that the ‘Cats are currently $8 million over the tax line and need to shed salary fast. There’s no question that the Nuggets would pull the trigger on a trade that would save them $26 million this season but in order for the ‘Cats to make it happen, they’ll need to make another deal first.

SALARY DUMP OPTIONS #1 and #2

CLT trades Boris Diaw and a future first rounder & second rounder to MIN, NYK or SAC for a future 2nd Round selection.
OR
CLT trades Nazr Mohammed + D.J. Augustin to MIN, NYK or SAC for a future 2nd Round selection.

In order to get underneath the luxury tax, the Bobcats need to shed around $8.5 million dollars from their current payroll. Fortunately, they might have a couple of ways of doing this in Boris Diaw (plus picks) or a Nazr/Augustin combo. If I’m MJ, I’m on the phone with David Kahn right now whispering, “y’know, we have this young point guard prospect who we-“ KAHN: “Point guard Prospect???!!! Did you say Point Guard?????!!!”

The Knicks might also be inclined to take on former D’Antoni favorite Diaw while gaining back a first round pick that can be used in the next decade. (Although I would be a little concerned that the Diaw/Eddie Curry combo might do to IHOPs what Ewing and LJ did to The Gold Club in the late ’90s.)

In the following scenario, let’s say the ‘Cats find a taker for D.J. and Nazr (even if they have to throw in a protected future first), then…

CLT trades Erik Dampier to DEN for Chauncey Billups

The Bobcats suddenly accomplish both of their current offseason goals: Upgrade the Point Guard position and Get Underneath the Luxury Tax. The team heads into the preseason with a relatively stacked roster.
StateOfTheRoster_Sept2010_TradeHim
Kwame and Diop would try to replicate last year’s Mohammed/Chandler/Ratliff center by committee while a now “huskier” Boris Diaw would rotate between the 4 and 5 spots when Coach Brown goes, uh, “small.”
Chauncey and Shaun Livingston give Larry Brown much bigger options at the point. McGuire, Derrick Brown, Henderson, Tyrus Thomas plus Crash, Livingston and JAX give Larry Brown a metric ton of “long, athletic” wing players to do his magic with.
Bobcats Salaries Post - Chauncey Trade
From a cap perspective, the Bobcats stay right at the tax line this season while maintaining flexibility going forward. Billups has a team option for the ’11-’12 season which will almost certainly not be exercised as the league goes into a lockout. The Bobcats could use their leverage with Billups’ current deal to sign him to a three year contract extension at a much lower per year salary next summer.

IN CONCLUSION

A Billups for Dampier swap makes a great deal of sense for both teams as Denver could save tens of millions this season by promoting Ty Lawson and dumping Chauncey. The Bobcats would likely cement their rise to the top 4 in the East this season by upgrading from Raymond Felton to Billups. Hmmm… What else is there to say? Bobcats win and win big.

Until next time, Enjoy the Offseason Bobcats Fans.

-ASChin