In Part 2, I talked about some strategy that the Bobcats could possibly use in making the 12th pick and made some generalizations about which players may or may not be available at #12. In Part 3, I’ll go into more detail about the players that are likely to be available to the Bobcats at pick #12.
A quick review: There are eight guys who will definitely be gone: Blake Griffin, Hasheem Thabeet, Ricky Rubio, James Harden, Tyreke Evans, Stephen Curry, Jordan Hill and DeMar DeRozan.
Then there are three guys who will probably be gone: Jrue Holiday, Jonny Flynn and Brandon Jennings. In this point-guard heavy draft, these guys have been searching for a safety in the mid-to-late lottery. In Chad Ford’s latest Mock Draft, he has them going in the 8-11 range. But with the Nets at #11 supposedly in need of a big (and with this draft being described as underwhelming and unpredictable in general) I think there is a small, but not irrelevant, chance that one of these guys could be available to the Bobcats at #12.
Could the Bobcats use a lottery pick on a point guard who didn’t work out for them for a second year in a row? I suppose anything is possible (especially with Jordan and Brown making the pick) but have to guess that they wouldn’t. With the Bobcats having been pretty clear that they intend to keep Raymond Felton and DJ Augustin, point guard is a relative strength on our roster. We have other needs that are more important.
Lets turn our eyes to the players that we’re pretty sure will be available at #12: Gerald Henderson, Terrence Williams, Earl Clark, Austin Daye, Jeff Teague, DeJuan Blair, Eric Maynor, Tyler Hansbrough, James Johnson, BJ Mullens, Ty Lawson, DaJuan Summers and Sam Young.
To cull the list even more, we’ll strike Young, Summers and Johnson — #12 is just too much of a reach for these guys. I’ll also strike Teague, Maynor and Lawson because they’re all pure point guards. Mullens is intriguing, but one 7-foot-plus project on the roster (Ajinca) is enough — off the list.
I’ll strike Hansbrough for a couple of reasons: one, the Bobcats can’t be eager to reinforce the perception that they’re actually the Charlotte Tar Heels; and two, they have to be wary of a white player who was dominant in college, but has questionable athleticism for the NBA (coughAdamMorrisoncough). James Johnson is out of the discussion; he did work out for the Bobcats, but is an out-of-shape forward tweener who has no buzz going right now. (Update: as I prepared to post this, just saw Bonnell’s blog post from tonight which informs us that Johnson is coming back for a second look on Wednesday.)
DeJuan Blair is intriguing, as the Bobcats have a need for depth at the power forward position. However, he’s a relatively unathletic rebounding specialist who relies on a wide frame to grab those rebounds, has played at a heavy weight, and has known knee issues. Sounds a little too close to Sean May for me.
Austin Daye is an interesting talent; everyone compares him to Tayshaun Prince and the feeling is that he’ll be picked somewhere in the middle of the first round. But he’s extremely weak and a little raw for the NBA. In a few years he might make a good hybrid forward, but the Bobcats need help now at other positions — off the list.
Earl Clark is the first guy on the list that I think the Bobcats could potentially pick at #12. He’s a long, athletic forward who’s similar to, but more ready to contribute than, Austin Daye. Clark is most often compared to Lamar Odom, as opposed to Tayshaun Prince, to give you an idea of the slight difference between Daye and Clark. Clark is just the kind of player whom Brown likes, and would only be a minor reach at #12.
Now we get to the two guys who are obviously at the top of the Bobcats draft board: Gerald Henderson and Terrence Williams. The Bobcats invited these two back for a second look on Monday with Micheal Jordan in the house to observe. Here’s the breakdown for these two.
Gerald Henderson played three years at shooting guard for Duke. He goes 6’5″ and 215 pounds. He increased his scoring average from 6.8 to 12.7 to 16.5 ppg over his three years at Duke. He is considered a pure shooting guard, with tremendous athleticism and an improving outside stroke. He plays great defense, and seems ready to contribute right off the bat. Here’s video of Henderson after the workout, with some comments from Larry Brown towards the end.
Terrence Williams played four years at shooting guard at Louisville. He goes 6’6″ and 215 pounds. He averaged 8 points as a freshman, then 12, 11 and 12 his last three years of college. That stagnation is probably the biggest concern on Williams’ resume (the other is his, ahem, eccentricity). While he’s clearly a shooting guard, he’s considered more versatile than Henderson. Williams has better ballhandling ability, is a better passer and can probably play a little small forward in a small lineup. Similar to Henderson, he’s considered a great defender and will likely be ready to contribute in his first year. Here’s video of Williams from the workout.
Here’s a great breakdown by DraftExpress.com on the shooting guards in this draft, with a bunch of great info and statistical analysis that helps to differentiate between Henderson and Williams. Rumor has it that Williams really impressed Larry Brown at the workout, met with team officials afterwards, then pulled out of a Tuesday workout in New Jersey with Henderson, Hansbrough, etc.
So as I wrap this up on Tuesday night, all signs are pointing to Terrence Williams as being the guy as long as the Bobcats don’t trade the pick. Seems like Williams would be OK with it. Hell, judging by the interest he had in Jordan’s gear at Monday’s workout, he may even pay Michael to wear Jordans.